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Ukraine's Crisis: Blowing the Sentinel of Great Changes in the World

The biggest geopolitical crisis at the beginning of 2022 is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which can be said to have sounded the clarion call of world change. At present, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still going on, and asymmetric rumors are flying all over the world, which makes this crisis seem more unpredictable: in the western dominated international mainstream public opinion, almost all the people support Ukraine, and there is no sound beneficial to Russia. As the Russian and Belarus media are the parties, their news can not be trusted completely, but in China, they can more objectively see the full picture of the situation. Mr. Zong Zong tried to separate them for you.

1、 War: Although Russia's war law is outdated, its war situation has an absolute advantage and it intends to promote talks through fighting

This conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not sudden. In fact, it is a continuation of the Crimean crisis in 2014, and it is also the result of NATO's continuous eastward expansion, which touches the Russian security red line. Although Ukraine and the West have unanimously defined this crisis as a "war of invasion", Russia has never characterized this conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a "war", but rather as a "special military operation". In combination with the incentives for NATO's eastward expansion, we can see that from Russia's standpoint, this military action against Ukraine can be interpreted as "the best defense is attack".

The author sympathizes with the Ukrainian people under the war, but despises its actor President Zelensky, who successfully explained what is "no action, no death".

As for the current situation of the war, if we only judge from the news of Ukraine and the western media, it is easy to give an illusion: Russia, like India in 1962, has almost turned the war of aggression into a "capital defense war". Now it should not be the Russian army surrounding Kiev, but Ukraine and foreign volunteer troops surrounding Moscow.

However, the truth should be that the Russian army has already occupied an absolute advantage in the main battlefield, and has basically won the regions of Udong and U'nan. It is reported that the 50000 troops of Ukraine in U'nan have been wrapped up in dumplings by the Russian army. At present, the Russian army has surrounded Kiev, launched a general offensive at the right moment, and the regular force of Ukraine has been basically disintegrated. It is not difficult to observe the tactics of the Russian army carefully. Although its fighting methods are old, the Russian army did not use heavy weapons on the one hand, and focused on attacking Ukrainian military facilities on the other, while it kept great restraint against peaceful people in big cities of Ukraine. There are two reasons for this: first, they do not want to fall into urban street fighting (Zelensky has ordered that Ukrainian civilians in Kiev have been given weapons); second, the dictator insisted that Russia's strategic goal has never been to completely annex Ukraine, but only to "force talks by war", but the conditions for negotiations change with the changes in the war situation. At the same time, Russia is still trying to "correct" the name of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, especially after Russia found several biological weapons research institutes of the United States in Ukraine, and tried to expand the impact of the incident at the level of the United Nations, but the effect is not obvious.

But the Russian army does not relent to the two forces in Uzbekistan: first, the so-called "neo Nazi" force represented by the Yasu Battalion, which has been killing pro Russian forces in Donbas, Udon since the Crimean incident in 2014, targeting soldiers and civilians, and doing as much as Nazi Germany did in those years. The attitude of the Zelensky government has been tacitly approved or even supported these years, by the way, This Asian speed camp also intervened in Hong Kong riots in 2019; The second is the so-called "international volunteer army" corps composed of multinational mercenaries, which is said to have 16000-20000 people. Putin made it clear that these soldiers "will not be regarded as prisoners of war", that is, the Russian army will directly kill them when they meet, because it is not ruled out that these international mercenaries may be NATO soldiers who change their waistcoats.

On the Ukrainian military side, it seems to be in chaos at present. First, there is internal strife, such as the conflict between the Yasu Battalion and the Ukrainian government army. It is reported that, because of the conflict between the Ukrainian army and the Yasu Battalion, Yuri Sodor, commander of the Ukrainian "Oriental" campaign tactical group, was seriously injured by the Yasu Battalion attack. In retaliation, the Ukrainian armed forces bombed the headquarters of the Yasu Battalion in the southwest of Mariupol with "Dot-U" tactical missiles; Second, its tendency to "break the can" is increasing. For example, the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the Zaborore nuclear power plant, caught fire during the war. This incident was probably committed by the Ukrainian army. Moreover, although the Russian Ukrainian negotiation reached a consensus to open up a humanitarian channel, there are forces of the Ukrainian army obstructing the evacuation of civilians, because they are afraid that Russia may use heavy weapons to attack the forces of the Ukrainian army left in the city after the evacuation of civilians, It's equivalent to pulling civilians for cover

As far as the overall situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is concerned, a long war is undoubtedly the next choice. It may only partially meet the interests of the United States and Britain, while Russia, Ukraine and the European Union will all suffer huge losses. Therefore, Zong Zong Jun believed that both Russia and Ukraine are seeking appropriate opportunities to end the war, but Russia hopes to maximize its interests to force Ukraine to sign an alliance under the city. After Zelensky's expectations of NATO and the European Union are disappointed, he may need a "honorable failure", such as the Russian army's massive attack on Kiev, and Ukraine is "forced" to sign an armistice agreement in the face of huge losses on the front battlefield.

2、 Sanctions and anti sanctions - "universal values" fall apart, and all kinds of "borderless" are abandoned

If the perspective is put on the international level, Russia actually faces a dual battlefield: one is the geopolitical battlefield against Ukraine, and the other is the international sanctions battlefield facing the entire western world. The latter challenges Putin even more than the former.

Looking at the US and Western sanctions against Russia, its characteristics can be summarized in a "comprehensive" and "comprehensive" way, and the publicity effect is really outstanding, including the cancellation of the most favored nation treatment of Russia, financial liquidation (kicking Russian banks out of SWIFT), large multinational companies (such as Apple, Google, Metauniverse, Coca Cola, McDonald's, etc.) Music (Russian soprano Nirebeko and Russian conductor Djeyev were banned by the western classical music industry because they refused to condemn Putin), environmental protection organizations (Russia is prohibited from participating in the selection of "European Trees of the Year"), medical organizations (the International Tumor Association prohibits the admission of Russian patients) Luxury goods (the fourth wave of EU sanctions announced that it was prohibited to export luxury goods to Russia) and other aspects... It gives the impression that the ultimate goal of the US sanctions is "de Russification of the international community", that is, to directly kick Russia into the existing international system.

Although the above package of sanctions is very frightening, Mr. Zong Zong Jun believes that the impact of sanctions on Russia will not be as serious as it seems, and this series of sanctions and anti sanctions interaction is seriously shaking the core "universal value" system dominated by the United States and the West for decades, which can be seen as the beginning of the "collapse of etiquette and joy" of the neo liberal international order, and also directly breaking up various discourse fields of "XXX has no borders". Here are some examples:

First, the short-term impact of comprehensive sanctions on Russia may not be at the nuclear bomb level:

First, the SWIFT sanctions, known as the "financial nuclear bomb", did not include all Russian banks in the sanctions list, which is equivalent to leaving a back door;

Second, the United States and Europe have different views on sanctions on Russian energy trade (oil and natural gas). The United States announced sanctions on Russian energy sector relatively simply, while Europe adopted "progressive" sanctions, because the United States does not rely on Russian oil and gas, but Europe is just the opposite;

Third, Russia has actually started preparations for "decoupling" from the United States in advance, such as increasing gold reserves, clearing US debt, and focusing on maintaining core economic security areas such as food, energy, and military industry. At the same time, Putin signed a large order with China at the Winter Olympics.

Secondly, many western sanctions have directly destroyed the core value discourse system that they have painstakingly established for many years:

First, Zerenski publicly signed a presidential decree allowing the confiscation of Russian residents' property in Ukraine, and many European countries began to forcibly confiscate the assets of local Russian citizens. Chelsea's boss Abramovich was unluckily attacked, thus breaking the principle of "private property is sacred and inviolable", which also sounded an alarm to the rich people in China. Capital in capitalist society may not be safe, Don't you see that Li Ka shing is ready to sell assets and leave the UK;

Second, it is said that Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency trading platforms in the world, has banned the wallets of 25000 Gross users. The reason is that in response to the sanctions imposed by the US government on Russia, cryptocurrency has been frozen, which may break the myth of "decentralization" of virtual currency;

Third, in the field of international discourse power, Russia is confronted with an all-round "cognitive war" between the United States and the West. The voices of Russia and Belarus are almost blocked by the whole network. In other words, there is no "confrontation" in the international arena of public opinion. "If you ask Russia to say a word, the United States and the West will lose", which naturally breaks the core value of the so-called "freedom of expression";

Fourth, Switzerland, a permanent neutral country, participated in the sanctions against Russia, which enabled those European countries that uphold the so-called "political neutrality" to remove the veil of hypocrisy. You should know that Switzerland had been secretly communicating with Nazi Germany during World War II in exchange for a commitment not to be invaded. In the long run, if the war broke out again in Europe, it would be no injustice for these so-called neutral countries to be beaten.

Finally, some Russian anti sanctions measures have accelerated the systematic destruction of the western value system:

First, Russia announced that 48 countries and regions were included in the unfriendly list, and allowed Russian countries, enterprises and citizens to pay foreign creditors in rubles, so as to avoid default under capital control, which completely pushed back the exchange rate risk of ruble devaluation caused by sanctions to creditors;

Second, Russia allows "piracy" to be legalized, that is, it does not pay patent fees. Specifically, the Russian government has modified the provisions of the law on patent compensation. If the patent holder comes from an unfriendly country or region, and its invention or industrial design is used without authorization, the amount of compensation to be paid is 0% of the actual income from producing and selling goods, completing work and providing services. This measure directly refers to the "patent hegemony" of the western free market economy. Although it may only be used during the war, it may set an example for other countries;

Third, "nationalization" of foreign enterprises means the direct confiscation of the assets of foreign enterprises in Russia that are trying to impose corresponding sanctions. In other words, the drama of sanctions and anti sanctions between the West and Russia has become a "mutual quality" game in the capital market, and the assets of companies and citizens from "unfriendly" countries and regions in Russia have become hostages of Russian anti sanctions instantly;

Fourth, the existing international cooperation system was suddenly interrupted. Taking the aviation field as an example, Russia immediately suspended the delivery of aircraft rocket engines to the United States after the launch of sanctions from the United States and the West, and the Russian National Space Agency warned that Western sanctions against Russia might lead to the crash of the International Space Station. It was reported that Russian space station astronauts were conducting exercises to dismantle Russian controlled modules.

3、 Negotiation: objects, difficulties and conditions

On March 12, Podoliyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation of the Russian Russian negotiation and director of the Ukrainian President's Office, said in an interview that after the third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the two sides had carried out a series of communications by video and established a working group. At present, the two sides are close to reaching a compromise on signing relevant agreements. Specifically, Podoliac said that the agreement to be signed should include the principled positions of the two sides on cease-fire, Russian withdrawal, signing of a peace agreement, and repair of damaged infrastructure in Ukraine. The most important thing is for Ukraine to obtain security guarantees to avoid similar incidents again.

At first glance, the above terms are considered to be Russia's "letter of surrender"... because there is no mention of the conditions demanded by the Russian side, as if it is Russia who is being beaten. Mr. Zong Zong judged that the peace talks should have made great progress, and the Russian side has released goodwill, because Ukrainian President Zelensky has said that he is "not interested in joining NATO", but there is still a distance between the two sides to reach a real agreement, and the fourth negotiation needs to be observed.

On the issue of negotiation, we need to pay attention to three issues, namely, the negotiation object of Russia, the difficult problem of Zerenski and Putin's conditions (asking price):

First of all, Russia's negotiating targets are actually two: First, Ukraine, standing in the foreground, is negotiating to end the war; Second, the US and the West, Ukraine's backstage, negotiated to end (ease) sanctions, which was the biggest challenge for Putin. Because the US provoked the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine by hoping to use the sudden rise of war to impose massive sanctions on Russia, the final effectiveness of the peace talks largely depends on whether the US and the West rescind sanctions.

Next, let's analyze Zerensky in the crevice: the current President of Ukraine and professional actor Zerensky is the most anxious now. On the one hand, he repeatedly called for direct communication with Putin, on the other hand, he expressed condemnation and disappointment at the refusal of NATO and the EU to support him, on the other hand, he had to call Biden to punish Russia accordingly, and even began to call on China to participate in mediation. It was really very busy. The reason why Zelensky is so is that he is accelerating to become an outcast of many parties. On the premise that it is impossible to confirm whether Zelensky himself is still in Kiev or Ukraine (although Ozawa regularly records videos every day to prove that he is still in Kiev, the Russian side has repeatedly released news that he has already run away, that Zelensky's family is abroad, and that he has 35 million yuan worth of villas in the United States), the most dangerous situation in Ukraine is falling into a certain "anarchy", In fact, Russia will lose the effective negotiation object, and it will be difficult to end the war. Therefore, Zelensky must mediate successfully before he becomes an outcast. However, Putin is obviously not willing to directly talk about the armistice agreement with Zerensky, because the latter is obviously a puppet of the United States, which may not work even if it is negotiated. The ideal state is to support a pro Russian real power leader. Moreover, if Zerensky turns against the United States to make peace with Russia, it is unknown whether he will be assassinated by the United States.

Finally, Putin's negotiation conditions are floating, depending on the situation of the war.

The negotiation conditions proposed by Putin in the first peace talks on February 28 are:

1. Recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea;

2. Ukraine should be de Nazi and demilitarized and maintain permanent neutrality;

3. Ukraine will remain neutral forever (it will never join the EU or NATO).

On March 11, the conditions for Putin's new peace talks became:

1. Write "Ukraine will never join NATO" into the Constitution of Ukraine;

2. In addition to the independence of Crimea to Russia and the two "republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk in Donbas region, it is also necessary to require the industrial town of Kharkov and Odessa region in southern Uzbekistan to exercise autonomy;

3. Ukraine is required to change to the cabinet system of the Prime Minister, and the President is non-existent. Zerenski can still be the President of Ukraine, with the general reason that the pro Russian opposition leader Boiko takes the post.

It can be seen that Putin's conditions for peace talks change with the changes in the war. When Russia invests more and more, when the front battlefield is more and more favorable, its peace talks will increase.

4、 Gains and losses of all parties in Ukraine crisis

1. United States

For the United States, its core strategic goal is to ensure the fragmentation of the Eurasian continent, which includes two small goals: to curb the rise of a single regional power (China, Russia, India) or a group of countries (the EU), and to instigate regional conflicts so that the United States has the opportunity to intervene as a mediator, and to use regional conflicts to drive out international capital to cooperate with the circulation of the dollar.

With the aid of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has achieved the following goals:

First, cooperate with interest rate increase (expected) to harvest European capital;

Second, alienate Russia Europe relations and bind EU security with NATO again;

Third, to combat the challenge of the euro to the hegemony of the dollar;

Fourth, influence the integration of Eurasia.

But the United States has also lost:

First, it completely pushed Russia to China;

Second, there seems to be a problem with the "Indo Pacific Union" united front. India's attitude towards the Russian Ukrainian conflict is worth pondering;

Third, the high international oil price has led to a new record of inflation in the United States;

Fourth, the strategic credibility of allies has been lost again, and security commitments have been questioned.

2. Ukraine

The biggest victim of this incident is undoubtedly Ukraine. It can be said that Zerenski let the master sell without even an agent understanding it. The impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on Ukraine is estimated as follows:

First, militarily, the disarmament of Ukraine should be the only way;

Secondly, geographically, the disintegration of Ukraine is an inevitable outcome. The problem is just the size of the geographical scope of the disintegration. The result of the minimum loss is that the two regions of Udon Lugansk and Donetsk are completely independent, and the western region is disarmed, becoming a strategic buffer zone between Russia and Europe;

Third, joining NATO: totally impossible;

Fourth, joining the European Union: like a red envelope of "fighting for more", Ukraine is only 0.00001 away from joining the European Union forever. On February 28, Zelensky signed the document on Ukraine's application for EU accession, and urged the EU to ratify Ukraine's accession as soon as possible through special procedures. The EU's response was "to allow Ukraine to be included in the discussion process, but refused to accept it"; On the other hand, Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the EU to "treat everyone equally". Türkiye has applied for the EU's "old fogey" for decades. In a word, Ukraine's geographical location determines that its strategic positioning can only be a Russian European strategic buffer zone, which determines that neither Russia nor Europe will fully incorporate Ukraine into its territory;

Fifth, the economy, trade and finance have plummeted, the country has lost its strength, and a large number of refugees have gone into exile. How long it will take to recover after the war is over is still unknown.

3. EU

The EU is the biggest victim after Ukraine:

First, in terms of security, we are forced to stand in the United States and bind ourselves to the NATO security framework, so that the departure of Russia Europe relations may become normalized;

Second, in terms of economy, Europe has suffered huge losses due to regional turbulence. In addition to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the EU cannot get out of its economic predicament in the short term;

Third, in finance, the euro was hit hard;

Fourth, politically, the crisis in Ukraine will aggravate the internal division of the EU, and Eastern European countries will become more inclined to NATO security and alienate from the German French axis;

Fifth, the energy crisis. The "Beixi - 2" natural gas pipeline project was suspended, and European energy prices were high. In order to alleviate the energy crisis, Europe even temporarily abandoned its established strategic goal of "carbon neutrality";

Sixthly, Germany's resumption of "re militarization" and the increase of 100 billion military expenditure budget are equivalent to lifting its historical burden of World War II in a disguised form, which may be conducive to European strategic autonomy. After all, the effect of a 5000 member European army is different from that of a 50000 member European army.

4. Impact and enlightenment on China

Disadvantages: First, the "the Belt and Road" around Eurasia may be blocked; Second, "China CEE 1+16" may be affected; Third, it may be involved in some joint sanctions. For example, the United States may sanction Chinese enterprises doing business with Russia in the next step. For specific logic, refer to the Meng Wanzhou incident. Prosperity: First, strategically, the full set of sanctions tailored by the United States for China has let Russia take the lead. Originally, the "comprehensive sanctions" of the United States and the West were intended to be applied to China after provoking the Taiwan issue. Now, China can seriously study the sanctions and anti sanctions measures in the Russian Ukrainian crisis to prepare for the future; Second, Russia completely turned to China. For example, Visa and Mastercard sanctioned Russia's foreign currency settlement channel, so that Russia changed to UnionPay as the settlement method, which is greatly conducive to the internationalization of RMB. For another example, the sanctions imposed on several western giants to withdraw from Russia gave Chinese enterprises the opportunity to occupy their markets; Third, the slow pace of Europe's "carbon neutral" strategy has given China a period of strategic opportunities to overtake at corners. At the same time, Europe has suffered a severe setback due to sanctions against the Russian economy, which may help restart the thaw of the China EU Investment Agreement. Enlightenment: First, China should take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis to deepen its efforts in the Middle East, especially focusing on developing relations with Türkiye and Egypt, so as to ensure the smooth flow of the "the Belt and Road"; Second, the financial credit guarantee of the United States and the international political neutrality of Switzerland are not trustworthy; Third, in the process of competition with the United States, China should focus on building a "comprehensive asymmetric deterrent" force to deal with possible "comprehensive and comprehensive sanctions" by the United States and the West in the future; Fourth, China can consider coordinating Germany and France and intervening in the Russian Ukrainian situation at an appropriate time in order to establish a similar model of "six-party talks" aimed at urging a return to the Minsk Agreement.

Author: Xia Guohan

Typesetting: YvelineWang