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Behind the recall of France's ambassador to the United States and Australia: the new AUKUS alliance exposes the internal structural contradictions of the West

Event review

On September 15, French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drion and Defense Minister Florence Parry issued a joint statement, expressing regret over Australia's decision to stop the Future Submarine Program and turn to the United States for nuclear submarine cooperation. At the same time, the French shipbuilding company DCNS expressed disappointment that Australia had stopped trading orders. On September 17, French Foreign Minister Le Drien announced that France had recalled its ambassadors to the United States and Australia for consultations in view of the "particularly serious statement announced by Australia and the United States on September 15". The 240th anniversary dinner of the Chesapeake Naval Battle (the decisive battle of the American War of Independence and one of the important symbols of American French friendship), which was originally scheduled to be held by the French Embassy in the United States, was also temporarily suspended by the French side.

Le Drion said frankly: "This is the 'first time in history' that France has recalled the American ambassador. 'There is a serious crisis between us. There are lies, inconsistencies, contempt, and betrayal of integrity, which confirms that our relationship has become a mess." Emily Horn, spokesman of the National Security Council (NSC) of the White House, immediately released a statement on the 17th, saying that she has been in close contact with the French side. The United States understands the position of the French side. In the next few days, it will continue to communicate and resolve the differences between the two sides, and once again reaffirm that France is the "oldest ally of the United States, and one of our strongest partners. It has shared democratic values for a long time, and is committed to jointly addressing global challenges."

1、 The reason why the French are so angry:

First of all, the direct cause is of course the economic loss of high price military sales orders. The direct cause of such a fierce reaction by the French is naturally the huge economic loss caused by the "change of the door" of Australian submarine orders. Australia once hoped to develop submarines by itself and invested huge amounts of money, but all of them failed. Therefore, Australia turned to the international market to buy submarines. At that time, potential sellers mainly chose Japan and France. In 2017, the Australian government finally announced that it chose the French Navy Group (DCNS) to implement Australia's largest defense project for building conventional submarines. It is estimated that the project is worth about A $90 billion, It can be called a priceless international military sales order, and the French can continue to increase funds for subsequent weapons maintenance and other projects, which is like a goose laying golden eggs. But Australia's sudden turn turned everything that France had coveted into a watery mirror.

Secondly, the political score of Makron was greatly reduced. According to relevant news, Makron paid a lot of political capital to negotiate the order at the beginning, and next year is the year of French presidential election. This time, Australia's "defection" is likely to cause Makron's political score reduction, and even worse, it may directly have a negative impact on the results of next year's French election. After Ma Kelong came to power, various domestic reforms had aroused dissatisfaction among the domestic people. The "yellow vest movement" kept rising one after another. In the past two years, it suffered the impact of the COVID-19, which made it possible that the French economy would not start to recover until 2023-2024. If there is another big setback in international diplomacy, I'm afraid it will really affect the overall situation of his re-election.

Finally, the American "selling teammates" was caught off guard and baffling, which hit the confidence of European "Atlanticists". The background of the "anti water" of the Australian submarine order is that the United States, Britain and Australia suddenly announced the formation of a new trilateral alliance "AUKUS", while the Europeans were completely unaware of Biden's strategic operation. Just one second ago, the United States was trying to persuade the European Union to join its "Indo Pacific Strategy" in order to jointly contain China. Many European "Atlanticists" even regarded Biden as the savior of "Atlantic relations". The next second, the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan without greeting its European allies. This time, the European Union was notified of the establishment of a new Angsar alliance circle, It also robbed the European Axis country France of its priceless arms orders. This series of operations has once again led Europeans into strategic confusion.

2、 AUKUS: New Alliance, New Embarrassment

First, the change from "five eyes" to "three eyes" means that the Angsar Group has turned inward. For this new US, UK and Australia AUKUS alliance, I'm afraid that not only the Europeans led by France are confused, but also New Zealand and Canada, members of the "Five Eyes Alliance". Some media said that Singapore and Canada were not included in the new alliance because they were not anti China enough, which is equivalent to indirect "demotion". In this regard, New Zealand Prime Minister Adene said on the 16th that New Zealand would not join AUKUS and would adhere to its position of prohibiting nuclear ships or weapons from entering its waters; Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau refused to comment on AUKUS. After all, because of Huawei's Meng Wanzhou incident, Canada is still being grilled on the stove of China US game. In a word, the "five eyes" to "three eyes" action of AUKUS highlights that even within the Onsa Group, there has been some strategic involution.

Second, AUKUS means a new round of unity in the core circle of sea power countries. Since the era of navigation, the world has experienced several rounds of confrontation and competition of land and sea power. Typical examples are the game between the British Empire and the French Empire, the game between the British Empire and the Russian Empire, and the game between the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. At present, a new round of land and sea power game will be launched between China and the United States. The formation of the AUKUS alliance by the United States means that it hopes to reunite the core Anglo Saxon sea power alliance forces and prepare for the upcoming ultimate land and sea power game. At the same time, it means that the United States does not believe in France, Germany and other European land allies.

Third, AUKUS highlights the inherent structural defects of the "US Japan India Australia" quadrilateral alliance. After Biden came to power, he continued Trump's "India Pacific Strategy" and changed his name to the "US Japan India Australia Quadrilateral Alliance". But after some operations, he suddenly found that there were many problems in the alliance system - India was a guy with a backward brain, never willing to be the younger brother of the United States, but only wanted to be the hegemon of South Asia, certainly not willing to be the front cannon fodder of the United States against China; Japan is even more embarrassed. It is not a member of the core civilization circle of Onsa at all, and can only be a "non official dog" at most. In contrast, Australia is the "official dog" of Onsa civilization, and is the most qualified to be a front-line cannon fodder.

Fourth, the United States will deeply bind "cannon fodder+long-term meal tickets" to Australia through AUKUS. The establishment of the AUKUS alliance and Australia's purchase of American nuclear submarines means that the United States still tends to push Australia to the front line of the anti China alliance to be the cannon fodder, and this nuclear submarine purchase order can be bound to Australia for at least 20 years, which can be regarded as a long-term meal ticket. The future of Australia's military purchase of the United States can refer to Taiwan, another cannon fodder under the United States security system.

Fifth, the purchase of US nuclear submarines by Australia is obviously a nuclear proliferation act, which will lead to an escalation of geopolitical security tensions around the country. The purchase of nuclear submarines by Australia is a clear violation of the International Atomic Energy Agency's "nuclear non-proliferation" principle, which will lead to geopolitical tensions around the country in the future. As we all know, Australia has always had the ambition of dominating the South Pacific. From the experience of western countries' transnational participation in wars in the last century, Australia's enthusiasm for launching overseas wars is no less than that of the United States. A proper war maniac, in order to squeeze into the so-called "core western circle", has participated in almost all foreign wars led by the United States. Therefore, its neighboring countries are also very worried about the regional security threat posed by Australia, which has geopolitical ambitions. For example, Indonesia, the first time, urged Australia to abide by the nuclear non-proliferation agreement. Therefore, once Australia has nuclear submarines, it will lead neighboring countries to seek pan nuclear weapons one after another.

3、 "Anti China" is a fig leaf for uniting Western groups, but there are countless undercurrents surging underneath

Now it seems that the so-called "anti China" has become a fig leaf to unite Western groups. Only by raising the banner of anti China, can the internal contradictions of many Western countries be temporarily alleviated. But in fact, the interior of the "Great West" has already been surging:

Strategically, Australia kicked France out of the big list of Australian submarines. Its significance is not limited to the field of military procurement, but also means that the United States does not allow Europe to have an independent "Indo Pacific Strategy" in the strategic field, nor does it allow Europeans to actively touch the security defense of the Indo Pacific region. Because the latter can only be monopolized by the United States, the so-called "Indo Pacific Strategy" of Europe can only be embedded in the framework of the "Indo Pacific Strategy" of the United States, This is very similar to NATO's structure.

In this AUKUS incident, France may be the most seriously injured. What action will France take except recalling the American and Australian ambassadors?

First, will France withdraw from NATO again? After the massive change of ownership of Australian submarines, Jean Luc Mellon, the current left-wing member of the French National Assembly who had twice run for the French President, voted on the calligraphy media to remind France that it should stop following the United States to take risks in the Indo Pacific region and give up the arms race with China. He had previously called on France to withdraw from NATO. You should know that in 1966, under the leadership of President Charles de Gaulle, France withdrew from the NATO military integration organization. In recent years, Makron has repeatedly expressed his disappointment and distrust of NATO. Therefore, there is no doubt that this incident will deepen the conflict between France and NATO. Ledriang said: "France will reconsider the core interests of NATO. The next NATO Summit in Madrid will formulate new strategies. When formulating new strategies, it is clear that what just happened will be taken into account." However, France should not withdraw from NATO again in the short term.

Second, France may take the opportunity to call again for the formation of a European coalition. Le Drien also said, "Europe must have its own strategic guidance, which will be the responsibility of France when it takes the rotating presidency of the European Union early next year. If Europeans feel that they will still be famous in history, they must unite to defend their own interests. Otherwise, Europe's destiny will be completely different." This formulation coincides with the concept of "sovereign Europe". Before the Munich Security Conference last February, French President Makron made it clear that "France can provide a nuclear umbrella for Europe, and does not need to rely on NATO." This sale of the United States and Australia undoubtedly gave France an opportunity to call again for the formation of a European coalition, play an independent role in the international arena, and gradually get rid of the shadow of the United States. Of course, another reason why France rushed ahead of this event is that Germany is entering the critical moment of the election, and Merkel's CDU seems likely to lose its seat as the largest party in the parliament at present, so Germany hides behind the scenes and does not express a clear attitude, but this does not mean that German people are like water.

Finally, by the submarine military purchase of "pigeon dropping", France plans to turn India into the next "pan receiving knight". According to Reuters, the French Foreign Ministry announced on September 18 that the foreign ministers of France and India had reached an agreement on the project of promoting a "genuine multilateral international order" and would discuss specific plans next week. The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement that French Foreign Minister Le Drien and Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng also agreed to deepen the strategic partnership between the two countries during the call, "based on the political mutual trust of two great sovereign countries in the Indo Pacific region". All kinds of signs indicate that France is planning to fool the 12 submarines of India that were pigeoned by Australia. France has its own precedent in the international arms purchase market. When the Crimean crisis broke out in 2014, European countries were forced to impose sanctions on Russia, and the purchase orders of two "Northwest Wind" class amphibious attack ships from France and Russia also ran aground. Therefore, France finally found Egypt and President Cecil to "receive orders", which can be regarded as keeping its wallet.

Summary

To sum up, the author judges that the strategic contradiction between the United States and Europe is actually deepening. "Anti China" has even become the glue to maintain the "Great West" alliance. However, due to the interests, the contradiction will still erupt when it should break out. I hope that China can make good use of this undercurrent surge between the United States and Europe in the future.

Author: Xia Guohan

Typesetting: YvelineWang