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On the afternoon of 25 March, the Honduran Foreign Ministry announced that the country had severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and at noon on 26 March, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Honduran Foreign Minister Enrique Reina signed a joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Honduras, in which the two governments decided to mutually recognise and establish diplomatic relations at ambassadorial level with immediate effect. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement mentioned that Honduras "recognises that there is only one China in the world, that the Government of the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China, and that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory." China and Honduras officially establish diplomatic relations!
For Taiwan, its foreign affairs chief Wu Chiu-sup held a press conference at 9:30 a.m. on the 26th, stating that "the final communication between the two sides has been ineffective, and Taiwan has terminated diplomatic relations and will withdraw from the Taiwan embassy, and the cooperation program between the two sides will be called off, and Taiwan has asked Honduras to close its embassy." In addition, Wu also claimed that during the communication process, Honduras was rumored to have asked Taiwan for US$2.45 billion in financial aid, implying that the rejection had led to the severance of diplomatic relations between the two sides. In fact, this is the "emergency hedge" that Taiwan has always taken in the face of the "broken diplomatic relations issue", i.e. when it is known that the broken diplomatic relations have become inevitable, Taiwan will announce that Taiwan has taken the initiative to break the diplomatic relations before the target country establishes diplomatic relations with mainland China, in order to put the responsibility for the broken diplomatic relations on the target country. The aim is to throw the blame for the break-off onto the target country in order to keep the last piece of shame.
ZHC observes:
First, Honduras' "breaking off diplomatic relations" with Taiwan is a manifestation of its view of the overall situation. Undoubtedly, the Honduran side is very resolute, with complete autonomy and initiative, and is very representative of the existing "diplomatic states" of Taiwan. This decision was based on the leadership's judgement of the international situation - Taiwan is merely a piece of US cannon fodder that could be manipulated into a "mirror image of Ukraine" in East Asia at any moment and go up in smoke, so it is natural that by siding with Beijing now, it can effectively escape the strategic quagmire into which it could be dragged in the future. The second point is that the "Lithuanian case" is an important one.
Second, the "Lithuania incident" may be the trigger for Honduras to break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan. As we all know, in May 2021, Lithuania decided to withdraw from the "China-CEE 17+1" cooperation mechanism, becoming the first country to withdraw from the mechanism, and on November 18 of the same year, Taiwan announced in high profile the establishment of the first European representative office in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, with the name "Taiwan". "It is also the only so-called "existing quasi-diplomatic agency" established under the name of "Taiwan" in a country with which the People's Republic of China has diplomatic relations. At the time, Beijing imposed direct and collateral sanctions on Lithuania for this reason, and there was a lot of furore. In the end, it was found that the name of the "Taiwan Representative Office" in English was still "Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania", i.e. "Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania". There is no difference between it and other European countries, except that the name in traditional Chinese is "Taiwan", which is, in short, pure "Self-Hyped". However, in order to make this happen, Taiwan has provided Lithuania with at least US$1.2 billion in aid, a move that has naturally made Taiwan's "diplomatic countries" sigh in disbelief and become so unbalanced that they have raised the price of maintaining the so-called "diplomatic relations" on Taiwan's side.
Third, this "Honduras breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan" incident is not a blow to Taiwan's ass, but to the face of the United States. Since Tsai took office, nine countries, including Sao Tome and Principe, Panama, Dominica, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Nicaragua and Honduras, have severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan, leaving Taiwan with only 13 "diplomatic relations", mainly in the South Pacific and Latin America. The South Pacific is Australia's "backyard" and Latin America has traditionally been the "backyard" of the United States. "From 17 to 21 March, the US sent former Senator Chris Dodd, the President's Special Adviser for the Americas and a close personal friend of Biden's, to Panama and Honduras to try to salvage the situation. However, on 20 March, immediately after a meeting with US officials, Foreign Minister Reyna said that the US had expressed its respect for Honduras' decision to end its so-called "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwanese authorities and to establish diplomatic relations with mainland China. Translation: not only did the US envoy not stop Honduras from breaking ties with Taiwan, but he also sent a salute to express his blessing for the establishment of diplomatic relations with mainland China. This is not a spanking to Taiwan, this is a spanking to the face of the United States. ......
Fourth, Taiwan may usher in a wave of "non-beacon diplomacy period of broken diplomatic relations"? The next one could be Paraguay. This Honduras diplomatic break may be one of the symptoms of Latin America's collective "left turn", another event is the visit of Brazilian President Lula to China, although Lula suddenly contracted an illness and postponed his visit, but the news that more than 200 Brazilian businessmen will join Lula's delegation to China is sufficient proof of Latin America's attitude. In addition, there is news that MERCOSUR is also negotiating a framework for cooperation with RCEP and free trade cooperation with China. MERCOSUR includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, and if Paraguay, as a member of MERCOSUR, maintains its "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, it is likely that it will not enjoy the benefits of this multilateral cooperation in the future. So, catering to the Paraguayan elections in April, the opposition candidate Efraín Alegre made it clear that he would break off diplomatic relations with Taiwan once he came to power, while the ruling party sent its foreign minister to visit Taiwan and "lavishly" demanded US$1 billion in aid, giving the ruling party a reason to "break off diplomatic relations" if Taiwan did not agree. "If Taiwan does not agree, the ruling party will have a reason to break off diplomatic relations. Therefore, in the opinion of Mr. Zongheng, Paraguay may be the next one to "break off diplomatic relations" with Taiwan. If Paraguay breaks off diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it will undoubtedly be a "disaster of epic proportions" for Taiwan.
In short, the world trend is unstoppable, so may Taiwan cherish the only remaining "diplomatic relations" it has left.
Author: Xia Guo Han
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