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Biden: a trap for Macron? 

Editorial 29 June 2021 

The viewpoint of Pascal Boniface 

The first months of Joe Biden's mandate have confirmed the expectations placed in him regarding the improvement of the climate of international and transatlantic relations.  For Emmanuel Macron - who has consistently advocated multilateralism in opposition to Donald Trump, and who complained that NATO was "brain dead" - the fact that Joe Biden has come to reinvigorate this Atlantic alliance is a priori good news, on several levels.

Firstly, because the United States is once again involved in the fight against global warming, which is a priority objective for France, whereas Donald Trump was a climate sceptic. Another piece of good news is that Joe Biden has put an end to the war between Boeing and Airbus, which was very damaging for Europe. He also resumed, albeit indirectly, negotiations with Iran, whereas France and the two other European allies (Germany and the United Kingdom) have always been very attached to the Iranian nuclear agreement signed in 2015. He also agreed to tax the digital giants, which Donald Trump categorically refused to do. The lifting of sanctions on the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is another European demand to which Joe Biden gave in. Overall, the international and transatlantic climate is therefore healthier.

However, the arrival of Joe Biden in power could turn into a trap for Emmanuel Macron. Previously, the French president had a ready-made role: he was the anti-Trump and embodied the defence of multilateralism. Firmly opposed to Donald Trump's unilateralism, he was never too transgressive and never opposed the American president head-on. He managed to embody an alternative to Donald Trump without antagonising relations with him.

From now on, this anti-Trump role is no longer relevant: Joe Biden does not need a counter-model, because he is himself the attractive model for European leaders. It is harder to resist Joe Biden, who keeps hammering away, so smiling, so cordial and so polite, that "America is back".

The great crusade launched by the United States against China does not correspond to the European agenda: this was clearly seen at the G7 and NATO summits, on the eve of which Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel stated that they did not share the American vision of an absolute and global Chinese threat - a vision on which Joe Biden and Donald Trump agree. With the arrival of Joe Biden, the US objective of containing China's advance remains unchanged: Donald Trump wanted to do it more aggressively, Joe Biden has more ambition to rally the Europeans. Europe has been drawn into this race against China and has not been able to resist American ambitions: in the joint communiqué signed at the end of the NATO summit, it is indeed the American terms that have been kept in relation to the Chinese "threat".

If Joe Biden is less unilateralist than his predecessor, he is not entirely multilateralist either. He is withdrawing from Afghanistan without warning the Europeans, who are also involved in the conflict; the NSA is unlikely to stop eavesdropping on European leaders despite numerous promises; Joe Biden is not going to give up on extraterritorial legislation - one only has to remember the force with which Obama applied it, with the $9 billion fine for BNP, the dismantling of Alstom, etc. In terms of trade negotiations, Joe Biden, who wants to protect the American middle class, is not going to do Europeans any favours.

Another problem for Emmanuel Macron is the fact that on the European level, American diplomacy gives priority to relations with Germany, which is seen as the main partner of the United States in Europe, and with the United Kingdom, which remains the traditional partner, even though it has left the Union. Angela Merkel will be received in Washington in July, while among the French leaders, neither the Minister of the Armed Forces, nor the Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, nor the Secretary of State for European Affairs, nor President Macron himself have been there.

More generally, on the international level, it is clear that for Joe Biden, Asia is the priority. The Asian ministers come to Washington one after the other, unlike the European leaders.

The difficulty also lies in the particular role of France on the international level: from now on, it accepts willy-nilly what the Americans say, it does not offer a real alternative. When it was more rebellious, it was paid more attention to. Where did Kennedy make his first trip abroad when he was elected? To France, to meet De Gaulle. And so did Nixon. Today, French leaders are still waiting to be received in Washington. From time to time, one should raise one's voice a little more - and not accept all the communiqués - in order not to lose relevance.

The other trap that Biden's arrival sets for Emmanuel Macron concerns domestic policy (even if foreign and domestic policy are never totally dissociated). American entrepreneurs are having trouble hiring - Biden's answer is "pay them more". It is hard to imagine Emmanuel Macron saying this, just as it is hard to imagine him adopting the wealth tax that Joe Biden has introduced in the US. Moreover, the approval by the American president of the verdict on the conviction of Derek Chauvin, the policeman who murdered George Floyd, puts Emmanuel Macron in a difficult position, because we do not see this type of approach in France concerning police violence, the principle and existence of which the president, or at least his executive, goes so far as to deny. Thus, whether it is a question of respecting minorities, taxing wealth or raising salaries, Emmanuel Macron is doubled on his left by his American counterpart, and this cannot, in the long term, fail to have consequences for French domestic policy. Joe Biden is good news in general, but for Emmanuel Macron he represents a particular, and personal, challenge, both internationally and domestically.